Washington’s plan for a centrally prearranged market in pot creates a breeding ground for a completely unplanned and illegal market of marijuana. Washington voters legalized recreational marijuana in 2012 and the first retail store opened in 2014. So why are authorities are moving to close pot shops across the state in just a few weeks
Tacoma ranks among the municipalities where new licensing regulations will have a major impact on the marijuana market, potentially inconveniencing consumers and creating a huge opening for those willing to work outside official channels.
“Last August, there were close to 70 unlicensed operators in Tacoma,” The News Tribune said last week. But a law that was passed in 2015 merged the medical and recreational markets and required all vendors to be licensed. “Tacoma is limited by the state to 16 retail licenses, and a recent city ordinance requires every retail operator also to get a medical endorsement to provide for those with medicinal needs.”
“We illustrate the methods and tools for two particular target numbers
But black market dealers don’t appear just because marijuana—or anything else—is technically outlawed; they arise when restrictions drive prices up, restrict availability, or both, and leave an opening for vendors willing to flout the law to satisfy demand. Cigarettes are legal, but they had such a high tax and restricted as to invite illegal dealers to enter the market and make a buck. Even before the latest change, Washington’s underground economy in marijuana was thriving despite its nominally legal status.”
BOTEC’s reports for the state fully acknowledge the existence of the marijuana black market. In fact, “Due to the considerable amount of uncertainty in the estimation process, as well as the rapidly changing nature of cannabis markets in Washington at present, it is valuable to reference feasible ranges rather than a single point estimate.”
That is, the whole marijuana market is too dynamic and in flux to get a firm handle on its size.
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